10:52
HardNetSoft Blog
TSUNAMI INTERNETInternet from now on entered the French hearths. At one time held with a professional use or some “geeks” insane of computers, the Net is used today by a majority of our fellow-citizens, in particular when they are the young targets. The children read from now on more words on their computer than in books. They use “google” and “wikipedia” to make their duties, to build their talks.
Certain French intellectuals regret it and vainly try to be opposed to it. But the combat is lost in advance… the company changed.
The children and the young adults are mainly connected to Community sites like dailymotion, or myspace. On these sites, they can listen to artists, view clips, be held informed current events,
download photographs, funds of screens, television series, films, buy tee-shirts with the effigy of their star preferred,…Certain French intellectuals regret it and vainly try to be opposed to it. But the combat is lost in advance… the company changed.
The children and the young adults are mainly connected to Community sites like dailymotion, or myspace. On these sites, they can listen to artists, view clips, be held informed current events,
This entry of the Internet as major actor of the media modifies the French audiovisual landscape structurally.
Indeed, Internet is by nature international: contents can be diffused (put on line) with the other end of the world and viewed or listened just here. The proximity of the diffusion and the consumption of the contents, inherited the old system of hertzian diffusion, does not have any more any direction. That poses the problem of the specific constraints which are imposed on our French radios (example: French-speaking quotas), whereas radios Internet of the whole world can beings listened on Internet, in France, and that they do not obey, they, with any constraint of this kind.
In addition, each Net surfer can produce contents and diffuse it on Internet, which transforms the world into several billion potential producers of musical or video contents.
The multiplication of the sources of production and the localizations of diffusion makes inoperative all the attempts to impose to the consumers a type of contents.
THE OBSOLETE OPERATION OF THE RADIOS AND TV
The traditional operation of the radios and the TV consists in selecting the contents according to several constraints, then to diffuse these contents. The listener or the televiewer then has the choice only between consuming what one proposes to him, or leaving (example: zapper).
The constraints taken into account by the programming are:
- The target of public: investigations make it possible to know the types of contents mainly consumed or appreciated by the public concerned. This target must be coherent with that of the advertisers whose advertising budgets are the only re-entries of sales turnover of the diffuser.
- Quality
- A leading charter (example: “radio operator rock'n'roll”, “the pop sound rock'n'roll”, “the rock'n'roll spirit”)
- The respect of the laws and the regulations (example: French-speaking quotas, not of incentive to violence,…)
- etc…
The traditional operation of the radios and the TV consists in selecting the contents according to several constraints, then to diffuse these contents. The listener or the televiewer then has the choice only between consuming what one proposes to him, or leaving (example: zapper).
The constraints taken into account by the programming are:
- The target of public: investigations make it possible to know the types of contents mainly consumed or appreciated by the public concerned. This target must be coherent with that of the advertisers whose advertising budgets are the only re-entries of sales turnover of the diffuser.
- Quality
- A leading charter (example: “radio operator rock'n'roll”, “the pop sound rock'n'roll”, “the rock'n'roll spirit”)
- The respect of the laws and the regulations (example: French-speaking quotas, not of incentive to violence,…)
- etc…
This method known as of “signal-down”, is by preserving nature:
- the public opinion polls make it possible to measure waitings expressed concerning existing offers, but prove generally inoperative to detect or define the future innovations. In another sector of industry, there is habit to quote the case of braking ABS: in the Eighties, all the preliminary investigations presenting an intelligent system able to slacken itself the pressure into the brakes (to prevent that the wheels are not blocked) led to negative measurements of the interest of the customers… Aujourd'hui all the vehicles have ABS…
- the radio operator programmers and TV tend to apply “receipts” which functioned: “one does not change a formula which goes”… But the relation of cause and effect between the programming and the TV rating is not clearly identified, as opposed to what let think certain survey institutes.
- these programmers live under the permanent stress of the short-term TV rating. However, there does not exist phenomenon which does not have natural fluctuations (eh not, that does not exist nowhere). That is true for the natural phenomena as for the economic phenomena. To try at all costs to give an explanation to these short-term fluctuations led to manufacture models of cause for false purpose which can lead their users to the bankruptcy (example: Chartism out of purse).
- The programmers constitute a bottleneck of the system of diffusion. They are far from numerous, and concentrate a very important capacity (they have the right of life or of died on a product) which generates a situation favourable with the collusion with certain large producers of contents.
- The concurrent chains tend to be observed. With each time a concurrent chain obtains better results, its receipt is recopied. By mirror effect, this method leads quickly to a complete sterilization of the offers: all the offers become quasi-identical, and the consumer of contents does not see any more the difference between the offers.
- the public opinion polls make it possible to measure waitings expressed concerning existing offers, but prove generally inoperative to detect or define the future innovations. In another sector of industry, there is habit to quote the case of braking ABS: in the Eighties, all the preliminary investigations presenting an intelligent system able to slacken itself the pressure into the brakes (to prevent that the wheels are not blocked) led to negative measurements of the interest of the customers… Aujourd'hui all the vehicles have ABS…
- the radio operator programmers and TV tend to apply “receipts” which functioned: “one does not change a formula which goes”… But the relation of cause and effect between the programming and the TV rating is not clearly identified, as opposed to what let think certain survey institutes.
- these programmers live under the permanent stress of the short-term TV rating. However, there does not exist phenomenon which does not have natural fluctuations (eh not, that does not exist nowhere). That is true for the natural phenomena as for the economic phenomena. To try at all costs to give an explanation to these short-term fluctuations led to manufacture models of cause for false purpose which can lead their users to the bankruptcy (example: Chartism out of purse).
- The programmers constitute a bottleneck of the system of diffusion. They are far from numerous, and concentrate a very important capacity (they have the right of life or of died on a product) which generates a situation favourable with the collusion with certain large producers of contents.
- The concurrent chains tend to be observed. With each time a concurrent chain obtains better results, its receipt is recopied. By mirror effect, this method leads quickly to a complete sterilization of the offers: all the offers become quasi-identical, and the consumer of contents does not see any more the difference between the offers.
All these factors of conservatism can constitute a force on a stable market, out of cruising speed: they reinforce the receipts which function, with interlocutors décisionnaires very few who work on the basis of mutual confidence. On the other hand, in a sector in full change, these factors of conservatism represent a real danger: the rigidity of the decision-making process and the inadequacy of the measuring instruments can cause serious damage.
THE MODEL OF CONSUMPTION OF ARTISTIC CONTENTS ON INTERNET
On the Community sites, the children and the young adults can consume contents (example freely: musical). They are influenced by the general communication and listen to and view many contents of known artists. But the Internet allows also a viral marketing, and not mediatized artists can, when their work sticks with waitings of the listeners/spectators, cumulate very high scores of listening and visionnage.
Each Net surfer then becomes at the same time consumer and prescriber of the contents which it introduces with his own way into his Community network.
This system known as of “viral marketing” which propagates the work of not mediatized artists is exactly the reverse of the system “signal down” describes higher: one calls such a system “bottom up”, because it is base which is born notoriety.
In the system “bottom up”, nobody concentrates the decision “to program” an artist. It is a group decision made without any supervision.
The Net surfers are active: they select themselves the productions which they wish to listen to or look at, and “play lists are constituted” which enable them, when they wish it, to consume in a passive way (example: as by listening to the radio or by looking at the TV). They communicate between them, conveying the image of artists who can thus find themselves propelled in the “charts”, exchange their play lists, etc
This mode of “active” consumption is, one sees it, halfway between the radio and Cd, the TV and the dvd.
The new generations were born and started to consume on Internet in this manner: the majority of the children in 15 year old lower part do not listen to the radio: they constitute in some kinds their own radio on Internet.
That led to a new phenomenon for the radios: their TV rating without drops to benefit a competitor (another radio). They are people who give up the radio operator with the profit of the Internet.
The TV for the moment is saved a little by this phenomenon of desertion because the band-width necessary to the transmission of sequences of images satisfactory resolution is still too high. But the evolution of the rates of transmission shows that this relative peace will not be able to remain beyond the five next years.
This new way of consuming multimedia contents poses the problem of the remuneration of having right, and in first, of the artists. But as the traditional system converged towards very short playlists, these problems ultimately relate to only one very small number of artists: those which profit from the traditional system. For the million other artists, the things are different: usually, they are not diffused, and thus do not touch remuneration. The fact still of not touching remuneration, but at least of being diffused, is for this million artists, an improvement of their situation.
They can use this notoriety to fill of the concert halls and to be thus remunerated by their live performances, recorded work being used ultimately as promotional object in the concerts.
For this reason this tendency could not be reversed probably any more: more the majors and the radios will rarefy the famous contents or will protect them from free consumption, more the Net surfers will migrate towards less known contents, still amplifying the phenomenon of viral marketing.
On the Community sites, the children and the young adults can consume contents (example freely: musical). They are influenced by the general communication and listen to and view many contents of known artists. But the Internet allows also a viral marketing, and not mediatized artists can, when their work sticks with waitings of the listeners/spectators, cumulate very high scores of listening and visionnage.
Each Net surfer then becomes at the same time consumer and prescriber of the contents which it introduces with his own way into his Community network.
This system known as of “viral marketing” which propagates the work of not mediatized artists is exactly the reverse of the system “signal down” describes higher: one calls such a system “bottom up”, because it is base which is born notoriety.
In the system “bottom up”, nobody concentrates the decision “to program” an artist. It is a group decision made without any supervision.
The Net surfers are active: they select themselves the productions which they wish to listen to or look at, and “play lists are constituted” which enable them, when they wish it, to consume in a passive way (example: as by listening to the radio or by looking at the TV). They communicate between them, conveying the image of artists who can thus find themselves propelled in the “charts”, exchange their play lists, etc
This mode of “active” consumption is, one sees it, halfway between the radio and Cd, the TV and the dvd.
The new generations were born and started to consume on Internet in this manner: the majority of the children in 15 year old lower part do not listen to the radio: they constitute in some kinds their own radio on Internet.
That led to a new phenomenon for the radios: their TV rating without drops to benefit a competitor (another radio). They are people who give up the radio operator with the profit of the Internet.
The TV for the moment is saved a little by this phenomenon of desertion because the band-width necessary to the transmission of sequences of images satisfactory resolution is still too high. But the evolution of the rates of transmission shows that this relative peace will not be able to remain beyond the five next years.
This new way of consuming multimedia contents poses the problem of the remuneration of having right, and in first, of the artists. But as the traditional system converged towards very short playlists, these problems ultimately relate to only one very small number of artists: those which profit from the traditional system. For the million other artists, the things are different: usually, they are not diffused, and thus do not touch remuneration. The fact still of not touching remuneration, but at least of being diffused, is for this million artists, an improvement of their situation.
They can use this notoriety to fill of the concert halls and to be thus remunerated by their live performances, recorded work being used ultimately as promotional object in the concerts.
For this reason this tendency could not be reversed probably any more: more the majors and the radios will rarefy the famous contents or will protect them from free consumption, more the Net surfers will migrate towards less known contents, still amplifying the phenomenon of viral marketing.
MIGRATION OF THE ADVERTISING REVENUES TOWARDS THE NET
All the studies (Morgan Stanley example) show that the migration towards Internet of the advertising budgets is irremediable and more and more rapid.
This migration follows the exponential growth of media Internet in terms of TV rating.
All the studies (Morgan Stanley example) show that the migration towards Internet of the advertising budgets is irremediable and more and more rapid.
This migration follows the exponential growth of media Internet in terms of TV rating.
GAINING THIS CHANGE: INDEPENDENT ARTISTS?As that is explained higher, the independent artists can strongly profit from this transformation of the market of the consumption of multimedia contents.
To show to the reality of this unhoped-for exposure unknown artists of the great traditional mediums, we will quote, as illustration, the following French artists:
- proXima (style: rock'n'roll): nearly 3 million listenings in less than one year, thousands of comments of fans: http://www.myspace.com/proximarockband
- Gojira (style: metal): more than 1,5 million listenings, and a solid bases fans:http://www.myspace.com/gojira
These artists are examples of success of viral marketing: the Net surfers consume their contents without there being publicity campaign or of total communication. These artists remain with the variation of the traditional networks of diffusion, but fill of the rooms, thanks to their notoriety Internet.
To show to the reality of this unhoped-for exposure unknown artists of the great traditional mediums, we will quote, as illustration, the following French artists:
- proXima (style: rock'n'roll): nearly 3 million listenings in less than one year, thousands of comments of fans: http://www.myspace.com/proximarockband
- Gojira (style: metal): more than 1,5 million listenings, and a solid bases fans:http://www.myspace.com/gojira
These artists are examples of success of viral marketing: the Net surfers consume their contents without there being publicity campaign or of total communication. These artists remain with the variation of the traditional networks of diffusion, but fill of the rooms, thanks to their notoriety Internet.
WHICH REACTION ADAPTEE FOR THE TRADITIONAL MEDIUMS?The preceding paragraphs could make believe that the radios and the TV do not have any more a room for maneuver to adapt their strategy. That is not completely true. Indeed, the approach “bottom up”, if it makes it possible to make leave some nuggets the ambient magma, generally takes time (a few months, 1 year,…). Contrary, a strong exposure of the traditional mediums makes it possible to make become an artist of unknown to known in a few weeks. It is there the advantage of the oiled organization of a system “signal down”.
This speed can be made profitable to carry out new editorial contents with less expenses (it is less expensive to make come the very new star than David Bowie).
For that, a solution would consist then so that the programmers are interested of very close in the diffusions on Internet, and that they locate the artists who have a strong TV rating.
By doing this, and while regularly propelling some new artists resulting from this popular plebiscite, they could:
- to propose innovations which their competitors do not propose (it exists so much of artists present significantly on the Net)
- to make come to their radio the base from the fans from these artists (to gain new listeners, it is also something which remains possible)
- to minimize the risk: if an artist corresponding about to the leading line is voted by plebiscite… it is that enough quickly it will be adopted by the current listeners
Attention, if they in general measure the inherent risk with a decision, the French leader are often sharpened to measure the risk related to a “not decision”: what does one risk if anything is not done, if anything is not changed?
In particular, the risk related to the absence of differentiation of the offers is almost never estimated.
However, this differentiation of the offers became today for the French radios (and tomorrow for the TV) a question of survival. One saw the result of a preserving management of the musical specialized press:
- these newspapers or magazines spoke only about the known ultra artists, to generate short-term assistantship,
- as these artists make promotion campaigns at the time of a launch of product (disc, DVD,…), the specialized newspapers were found with all the same contents (including the same photographs) all at the same time, eliminating by mirror effect very contained differentiating,
Today, the majority of the newspapers or musical magazines French disappeared, or were repurchased by international press groups who publish in few expenses, and via compressed ultra teams, translations in French of their foreign newspapers.
The absence of differentiating contents killed them.
The radio and the TV will not be able to derogate from this principle.
Besides one sees that and there some successful attempts at coupling “Internet/traditional media”. French artist KAMINI, for example, left anonymity by Internet and the radios and TV knew to exploit this notoriety. They amplified it, thus creating a sure value.
Some radios propose many specialized emissions Internet in which they present the tendencies of the moment on the fabric. But the old habits have the hard life, and the programmings of these emissions are as forced, ultimately, as those of the general play list (effect “signal down”).
These specialized emissions are not significant compared to the absence of differentiation.
Then, will the radios (and later TV) resist tsunami Internet?
Eh well all depends on their strategy in the few months which come. Either they are transformed into “nimble follower”, locating tendencies on Internet, using the Community sites in the place of the panels and surveys by nature inapt to detect “the good innovation” (these tools are generally confined to predict that the new title of U2, or of Rolling Stones is a must cuts… but that, the programmers know it already), or they let pass the train and unrelentingly continue to lose listeners, and thus advertisers.
This speed can be made profitable to carry out new editorial contents with less expenses (it is less expensive to make come the very new star than David Bowie).
For that, a solution would consist then so that the programmers are interested of very close in the diffusions on Internet, and that they locate the artists who have a strong TV rating.
By doing this, and while regularly propelling some new artists resulting from this popular plebiscite, they could:
- to propose innovations which their competitors do not propose (it exists so much of artists present significantly on the Net)
- to make come to their radio the base from the fans from these artists (to gain new listeners, it is also something which remains possible)
- to minimize the risk: if an artist corresponding about to the leading line is voted by plebiscite… it is that enough quickly it will be adopted by the current listeners
Attention, if they in general measure the inherent risk with a decision, the French leader are often sharpened to measure the risk related to a “not decision”: what does one risk if anything is not done, if anything is not changed?
In particular, the risk related to the absence of differentiation of the offers is almost never estimated.
However, this differentiation of the offers became today for the French radios (and tomorrow for the TV) a question of survival. One saw the result of a preserving management of the musical specialized press:
- these newspapers or magazines spoke only about the known ultra artists, to generate short-term assistantship,
- as these artists make promotion campaigns at the time of a launch of product (disc, DVD,…), the specialized newspapers were found with all the same contents (including the same photographs) all at the same time, eliminating by mirror effect very contained differentiating,
Today, the majority of the newspapers or musical magazines French disappeared, or were repurchased by international press groups who publish in few expenses, and via compressed ultra teams, translations in French of their foreign newspapers.
The absence of differentiating contents killed them.
The radio and the TV will not be able to derogate from this principle.
Besides one sees that and there some successful attempts at coupling “Internet/traditional media”. French artist KAMINI, for example, left anonymity by Internet and the radios and TV knew to exploit this notoriety. They amplified it, thus creating a sure value.
Some radios propose many specialized emissions Internet in which they present the tendencies of the moment on the fabric. But the old habits have the hard life, and the programmings of these emissions are as forced, ultimately, as those of the general play list (effect “signal down”).
These specialized emissions are not significant compared to the absence of differentiation.
Then, will the radios (and later TV) resist tsunami Internet?
Eh well all depends on their strategy in the few months which come. Either they are transformed into “nimble follower”, locating tendencies on Internet, using the Community sites in the place of the panels and surveys by nature inapt to detect “the good innovation” (these tools are generally confined to predict that the new title of U2, or of Rolling Stones is a must cuts… but that, the programmers know it already), or they let pass the train and unrelentingly continue to lose listeners, and thus advertisers.
